OSCAR EVE

Tis the night before nominations. Oscar takes center stage in the wee hours of the West Coast morning tomorrow. I've been rather obsessed with the race for the Academy Awards the past few years. I honestly don't know why. Scratching the surface, the answer could have something to do with my innate love of listmaking. Digger a little deeper, it could be related to an unyielding quest to take the temperature of the cultural zeitgeist. Drilling to the core, the chase for a coveted Academy Award nomination represents something real within me that longs for the ultimate recognition from the industry I'm attempting to ply my trade in.

Geekily, I've been keeping a running list of my predictions for Best Picture since the middle of November. The list has evolved as I've seen more of the movies and as buzz has shifted. We'll begin with my current Oscar Eve educated guesses:

BEST PICTURE PICKS
1/24/05

THE AVIATOR
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
SIDEWAYS
FINDING NEVERLAND
HOTEL RWANDA

Stiffed: ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

For over a month, my picks went unchanged. From 12/7/05 to 1/13/05, RAY was the choice for the last slot, but that was before I saw HOTEL RWANDA, which was unquestionably the more powerful movie of the two. I think the Academy will agree.

From 11/30/04 to 12/7/05, I believed PHANTOM OF THE OPERA was close to a lock, and FINDING NEVERLAND would knock out RAY from the final nomination.

And finally, from 11/19/04 to 11/30/04, before MILLION DOLLAR BABY made a strong move to the inside, my picks looked like this:

THE AVIATOR
PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
SIDEWAYS
FINDING NEVERLAND
KINSEY


My predictions for the rest of the major categories:

BEST DIRECTOR

MARTIN SCORSESE - The Aviator
CLINT EASTWOOD - Million Dollar Baby
ALEXANDER PAYNE - Sideways
MARC FORSTER - Finding Neverland
MICHAEL MANN - Collateral

Stiffed: MICHAEL GONDRY - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind


BEST ACTOR

JAMIE FOXX - Ray
LEONARDO DICAPRIO - The Aviator
PAUL GIAMATTI - Sideways
JAVIER BARDEM - The Sea Inside
DON CHEADLE - Hotel Rwanda

Stiffed: JOHNNY DEPP - Finding Neverland, CLINT EASTWOOD - Million Dollar Baby


BEST ACTRESS

HILARY SWANK - Million Dollar Baby
IMELDA STAUNTON - Vera Drake
ANNETTE BENING - Being Julia
KATE WINSLET - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
CATALINA SANDRINO MORENO - Maria Full of Grace

Stiffed: No one


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

THOMAS HAYDEN CHURCH - Sideways
MORGAN FREEMAN - Million Dollar Baby
CLIVE OWEN - Closer
PETER SARSGAARD - Kinsey
FREDDIE HIGHMORE - Finding Neverland

Stiffed: JAMIE FOXX - Collateral


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

CATE BLANCHETT - The Aviator
VIRGINIA MADSEN - Sideways
NATALIE PORTMAN - Closer
LAURA LINNEY - Kinsey
MERYL STREEP - The Manchurian Candidate

Stiffed: SOPHIE OKONEDO - Hotel Rwanda, KATE WINSLET - Finding Neverland


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

CHARLIE KAUFMAN - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
JOHN LOGAN - The Aviator
BILL CONDON - Kinsey
PEDRO ALMODOVAR - Bad Education
BRAD BIRD - The Incredibles


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

ALEXANDER PAYNE & JIM TAYLOR - Sideways
PAUL HAGGIS - Million Dollar Baby
DAVID MAGEE - Finding Neverland
PATRICK MARBER - Closer
JOSE RIVERA - The Motorcycle Diaries


The chase ends tomorrow morning. I'm actually relieved. My mind can stop working on the speculation of nominations and move on to more important matters. I always find that after the nominations are announced, I lose interest until the week leading up to awards when I have to make my Oscar Pool picks.